WHADDYA GOT THERE, NUMBERS?: NO HUMAN WILL EVER PICK THIS TOURNAMENT CORRECTLY

This in addenda to the Washington Post's article covering the futility of picking this year's Sweet Sixteen.

Offering a million dollars for a complete bracket is a safe marketing bet by ESPN that stirs up considerable interest with very little risk. There are 2⁶³ = 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible ways to fill out a bracket given the play-in game is not counted, and only one way to win that money. If we assume that a bracket weighted with knowledge of the game improves those odds by about 6 orders of magnitude (base 2), let's say the four 16-1 gimmes and two other games, and that the 3.65 million participants of ESPN's Tourney challenge each entered a unique bracket (didn't happen, but irrelevant), the odds of ESPN paying up each year are about 0.0000000002814%, which will not happen in our lifetime, or in the expected lifetime of the human species. In fact, the odds of ESPN paying up at least once between now and 900 million years from now (when the surface of the Earth becomes inhospitable due to gradually rising solar luminosity) is only about 0.3%.

If during those 900 million years, ESPN invested their million dollars in an average mutual fund (with a nominal interest rate of 5%), they'd double their money every 14 years and have a total of 2^64285714 million dollars at heat death Armageddon. However, if the treasury was continually printing $100 bills (about 2^64285727 of them by the end) to allow ESPN to cash out their savings to actual currency (which is ridiculous, but bear with me), at a point of about 5 solar masses (1 gram per bill) their combined weight would collapse Earth to a singularity. This would happen in only about 1,416 years. This is without considering that college basketball would become a much more difficult game to play as the surface gravity of Earth steadily rose under all those dollar bills. So I think it's safe to say that we should either rob ESPN or stop this whole bracket thing sooner rather than later.

The Earth would look roughly like this in 3424 A.D.
thanks to ESPN. You, as the observer, would also die
if you got this close.

Georgetown loses, Ernie laments

G'town didn't even make it to the Sweet 16. I almost don't want to watch the tournament anymore. Well, that's not true, but I was sad to see them lose and no less to a team led by someone who looks like a cross between a 14 year old and E.T. With three quarters of the field watching from home I would like to consider a couple things from the first weekend:

Vandy Impressive In Just How Badly They Stank
Butler got jobbed being given a #7 seed and played Tennessee--a once #1 team in the land--to a great overtime finish in the second round supporting they were legit. As much as they were underrated, and showed it, Vanderbilt was an overrated #4 and showed it. As my colleague Schmitt would say, Vandy shit the bed...oh man did they shit the bed. Blitzed by Siena in a game that was never close. Definitely the most lopsided upset so far.

Duke--as overrated a 2 seed since Iowa State in 2001; UCLA rewarded with a cake walk
Duke showed they aren't just weak when they can't shoot, they are actually a sub-par team. Scraping by Belmont then getting taken to the house by WVU. Paulus is really wishing he took the ND quarterback gig right about now. The #2 (Duke) and #3 (Xavier) from UCLA's region are weak as those seeds to begin. After Drake and UConn screwed the pooch and bowed out early they have to beat only W. Kentucky to face either Xavier or WVU to move to the Final Four. By far they have the easiest road among the 4 #1 seeds remaining.

A pair of 12-13 second round matchups...great!!
Through close games, except Vandy v. Siena, a pair of 12s (Villanova and WKU) and 13s (San Diego and Siena) advanced to play each other. 'Nova is a good school having a bit of a down year, but played well and moved past Siena easily--making you wonder even more just WTF with Vandy. I have no idea who W. Kentucky is but they knocked out Gumbercules' national champion pick (Drake) so I'll root for them against UCLA as they scraped by San Diego.

Washington St. wakes up at halftime against Winthrop
10 of the 12 top 3 seeds made it to the second weekend. If you said only one #4 seed would be in the Sweet 16 I would have bet money it would not have been Wash. St. Since they were tied with Winthrop at half they have outscored their opponent 93-52 over 3 halves. That 52 points allowed over three halves is super impressive. They may have a shot against UNC who has decided that instead of playing defense in their first two games they would just play at a pace that neither opponent could match. Good defense beats good offense...and vice versa.

The landscape of contenders didn't change too much except G'town and apparently Drake are gone. I think UCLA and UNC still are poised to dominate. Kansas has played well, but they're really good at finding ways to fuck things up. It's ironic how Memphis has fewer losses than any team in the land and yet few people talk about them as possible champs. That trend continues here, too.

I DON'T MEAN TO BRAG..

..but here will be the fallout after my bracket intellectually cleanses the college basketball knowledge you claim to hold:



And I'm totally going to bone that slampig as soon as she gets done talking about how sweet my bracket was. I assume churches, weekly tithing and ascendancy will come soon thereafter.

Only 3 days to go until college basketball Christmas. Or for Billy Packer, the 11 or so days where his value as a human being on this planet is supposedly justified.

Roy Williams and Coach K no longer BFF

Coach K - Slamboree 2008. It is on.

It appears Roy Williams took umbrage over remarks made by Coach K (I already spelled Mientkewicz, that's enough for today) regarding injury reports. This all started after media asked Duke about player injuries, to which K replied that it was against team policy to report on this...

"unlike other teams."

(presumably followed by media going "oohhhhh shit, it's on now!"

Roy Williams did not approve.

It's not like I'm getting a dadgum plane and flying it around to say, 'Roy fell against a wall and banged his nose' or anything, Williams said in a news conference (through sniffles and heavy breathing that disguised apparent tears). We have to do those things [talk about injuries] and everybody's hurt. But there's different stages of being hurt.

Wait a minute? Roy fell against a wall? Roy, you're only 57; my grandmother is considerably older than that, has a job that requires no physical activity and even she's still got her motor skills. On the same note though, I doubt she could handle the physical responsibility of feeding Tyler Hansborough a live goat every 6 hours.

If you're hurt and missing games, that's not exactly like having a hangnail. And so we do have some people that are getting hurt and missing games. I don't think that somebody should say we're putting it in front of the public.

Sniffle, sniffle, Roy. Who the hell cares? Aside from a loss to Duke this season, you've had the upper hand on them for a few years now. Besides, everyone knows that when you get served you don't dance back - and now it's on.


You know who wouldn't care about this shit? Pat Summitt. For future reference, she's a breeder; power is sexy.

Lose the colors and we'll talk, sweetheart.

Vanderbilt 93. Kentucky 52

Ramel Bradley Guns Up Another 3 in Garbage Time.
Isiah Thomas Just Fell in Love.

I don't really have anything to add to this, other than the fact that Vanderbilt, 5 minutes into the 2nd half, was up 55-14. That's a score more fitting for a Broncos-49ers Super Bowl than one of the greatest college basketball teams of all time. That said, there's nothing like seeing Ashley Judd cry in person. It's like someone drawing a mustache on the Mona Lisa. Also outstanding was seeing Patrick Patterson almost murder someone after drawing his 4th foul. He looks like he played with matches a lot as a kid.



While Alex Gordon only put up 2 shots, the one he made was a no-look fade away three with a hand in his face to put Vandy up by 35. You can't underestimate the importance of Alex Fucking Gordon. He's the A-Rod of SEC basketball.

Ref screws the pooch with last second foul in G'town-Villanova game

Last night the 8th ranked G'town Hoyas eeked out a win against the unranked Villanova Wildcats 55-53. This leaves the Hoyas (20-3, 10-2) tied with Notre Dame (WTF?!) in the loss column of Big East play. Additionally, it removed any chance for 'Nova to get a much needed win as they currently are tied for the 12th and final tourney spot in the Big East--sidenote: the fact that not every team goes to the tournament is retarded. Thankfully, someone realized this and it will change next season with all 16 teams making post-season play.

As much as I am a G'town fan, been one since when they still used fruit baskets for hoops--yeah, I'm old, Villanova got jobbed last night. 53-53 with a few seconds left in an exciting, but super ugly Big East prototypical game and G'town plays great defense on the Wildcats holding for the last shot. Jonathan Wallance, G'town senior guard who got into their law school--ranked top 10 in the nation, picked up the loose ball and headed up sideline. With a bit of contact the ref blew the whistle, which being in the double bonus meant two free throws, with 0.1 seconds left. Wallace, a career better than 80% FT shooter nails both and the game is over.

It sucks the ref decided the game on a ticky-tacky foul when for the most part of the game they allowed a good bit of contact. The game was physical, but the last second foul was certainly not necessary. The only logical defense I can provide for the ref is Wallace steps on the sideline after the contact, something which the ref could absolutely see given his perspective. My notion is the ref called the foul because if he doesn't he felt he had to call the out-of-bounds even though Wallace going out of bounds was absolutely because of the defensive contact. It's shitty and the ref should have let the play go and the clock expire. Though the ref who made the foul call cannot be expected to know this, the Villanova guy who had the ball immediately before Wallace scooped up the loose ball definitely stepped on the end line. You make that call and it's G'town ball with 5 secs left and they can start from half-court. Maybe they hit a game winner there, maybe not. You never want to see a close game get decided on a call like that. Tough break for the Wildcats.

NCAA Lost Power Rankings

Gimmick sports rankings; real original.

At the halfway point of the season, we've decided to compare college basketball to the biggest current event in America right now; the return of Lost. Power rankings are our own and completely arbitrary, so please don't question them.


1. Memphis - Kate - Yeah, they're a sexy choice right now, but does anyone think that they can actually do anything in the crunch time? Kate, while a major player in island politics early on was mostly worthless in escape attempts from the Others and the trek to the radio tower.

2. Duke - Locke - Coach K has a connection to college basketball unlike any other current coach, and has the uncanny ability to make marginally talented white kids the most hated figures in college sports. Locke has some weird communion with the island and was able to turn Boone from an interesting character to his own personal slave (until he inadvertently killed him). Bonus that most people hate both Duke and Locke.

3. North Carolina - Jack - Though they stumble at times, Roy Williams' time-tested coaching and utilization of talent shines through in tough ACC and NCAA tournament play. They are the man of science against Duke's man of faith - Locke.

4. UCLA - Sayid - A dangerous combination of talent and experience. Love, Collison, and Mbah a Moute can grind teams into submission, as seen in wins over Michigan State, Stanford, and Washington State. Like the former torturer Sayid, they're able to overwhelm you on several fronts and break a team down as the game wears on.

5. Kansas - Sawyer - Impressive at times. Always a little shady. And in the end, everyone knows that they're gonna mess up. Kansas's NCAA tournament woes have been well documented in the past.

6. Tennessee - Ben Linus - A threatening figure although not physically imposing. The Vols have no one key player (especially this year with Chris Lofton in a slump), but strike fear into the hearts of other SEC teams. Bruce Pearl is a great coach who is outstanding at understanding other teams' weaknesses and exploiting them; just like the leader of The Others.

7. Georgetown - Mikhail - Powerful, and seemingly unkillable. While they have their weaknesses, their overall strengths will keep them bouncing back against weaker teams and making them pay for not completely destroying them.

8. Stanford - Desmond - I don't think anyone really knows what to make of Stanford right now. While they look like a big contender, there's something a bit off with them. They could run the table from here through the Pac 10 tournament, or they could drop games to teams like Siena and Oregon again. That said, it's entirely possible that they're the ones who could emerge from nowhere to cut down the nets in April, just like Desmond came out of a hatch to bring potential rescue from his rich girlfriend.

Xavier vs. Georgetown, artist's rendition.

9. Xavier - Jin - While not on the same page as everyone else, this team has made itself a major player despite being a part of the Atlantic 10. Though not destined for a starring role, a Sweet Sixteen trip will legitimize it's place on the island, and the A-10's place in college hoops.

10./11. Wisconsin/Michigan State - Sun - Pretty choices out of the Big Ten. However, conference play there is similar to Jin's actions on the island; nothing really happens. Though each team may inadvertently make some noise (i.e. accidentally murder one of the others, beat Texas), their relatively weak conference play will hinder them come tourney-time.

12. Butler - Charlie - Annoying and very, very white, Butler won't seem to go away. After last year's crashing of the top 25, they've gotten even stronger this year. Same with Charlie, who seemed to have no future on the island in the first season and did little but slow down the storyline until eventually meeting his destiny by turning off The Others' signal jamming equipment.

13. Indiana - Danielle Rousseau - An old favorite, fading in and out of episodes/college seasons only to appear again as a dangerous tertiary character, waiting to trap other big name teams. Indiana's got talent, and if they can find some consistency will make a big impact come tournament time.

14. Texas - Alex Rousseau - A team too young to make make of an impact this year. Texas has just one senior and two upperclassmen in their rotation. Alex, on the other hand, is only 16 and has just arrived in the survivors' camp. They're both primed to play major roles given a little more time and seasoning.

15. Marquette - Tom (Mr. Friendly) - Seemingly powerful, but shrouded with confusion. Who knows what they'll produce late in the season. They do their job adequately but rarely produce outside of what's expected of them (wins against a weak non-conference schedule, losses against high RPI teams like Duke, Wisconsin, Louisville, West Virginia).

16. Washington State - Mr. Eko - Like Eko, came out of nowhere last year to kick some ass, only to crumble in the NCAA tournament. This year they're starting strong again, knocking around teams like Arizona State with their womping/scripture stick. However, by the end of the year will they find religion again and play like lambs in the tournament?

17/18. Drake/Saint Mary's- Nikki/Paulo - Does anyone know who any of these teams are? Odds are they'll be buried alive by the 2nd round of the NCAAs.

19. Florida - Richard Alpert - Quietly lurking in the background, this ageless Other has been ignored on countless occasions by Ben, despite his clear connection to the island. Florida, on the other hand, had been largely ignored by the polls but could be the ones that swing the balance of power in the SEC.

20. Pitt - Hurley - Always a nice story, but in the end if they do anything positive we'll all be shocked. As a bonus, Hurley and Aaron Gray weigh the same. However, just like Hurley seems to be a big player in the future, Pitt could become a legit threat once their injured stars (Levance Fields and Mike Cook) come back healthy.

21. Vanderbilt - Michael - At the end of season 2, Michael left the island. At the end of non-conference play, Shan Foster and A.J. Ogilvy disappeared. Though all will probably return, it will be tough to take either of them seriously given the exposure to their weaknesses (in Vandy's case, turnovers and streaky shooting).