Did the Slumping Economy Save the Celtics 2010 Season?

Carl Everett proved that Boston fans love crazy...until you assault an ump/ref. The bar is set pretty low, 'Sheed!

First off, this is all speculation. No one knows how the 2010 Celtics will gel together, especially with the additions of Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels, along with Rajon Rondo playing without an extension after getting ripped by his GM this offseason. What we do know is that the experts and scouts at ESPN like their chances this year - half chose them to make it to the NBA Finals this year out of a talented Eastern Conference.

The logic there makes sense. This was a team that won a NBA Championship 2 years ago and was a fierce opponent in the regular season before losing Kevin Garnett. Now Garnett is back, and the team has addressed its biggest weakness by reloading the bench with Sheed, 'Quisy, and re-signing Glen "Big Baby" Davis. It leaves the Celtics rotation looking like this:

• C - Perkins/Wallace
• PF - Garnett/Davis
• SF - Pierce/Daniels (will also share PG role)
• SG - Allen/House (PG role)
• PG - Rondo/

While still thin in the backcourt, it is a major upgrade over last year's bench, especially after Leon Powe was lost for the postseason. That team was forced to start Big Baby in Garnett's absence, and play Brian Scalabrine (!) meaningful minutes at the 4 and 5, while occasionally ceding PG duties to a half-crazed Stephon Marbury. How were they able to pull that off with $58 million tied up in salary for the "Three Amigos" and the NBA's salary cap at $57.7 million in 2010?

Not pictured - Brian Scalabrine

Thrifty shopping, a solid use of exceptions, and decreased market value of players made this team possible. Essentially, in locking up Daniels, Davis, and Wallace, they secured three players that would likely have gotten Mid-Level Exception deals in the economic climate of 2006 for under $11 million, a savings of approximately $7 million to the deal. Additionally, the use of free agency exceptions ($5.8m mid-level for 'Sheed, $1.99m biannual for Daniels) allowed the team to reload with free agents despite being well over the cap.

But how did the economy play a role? Let's take a look at the caliber of player that was signing these deals just three years ago.

In 2006, the key Mid-level exception signings ($5.2 million) were:

• Vlad Radmanovic - Lakers
• Jerome James – Knicks (A possible exception due to Isiah Thomas’s awfulness as GM)
• Tim Thomas - Suns
• Nazr Mohammed - Pistons

In 2008, these signings ($5.5m) were:

• DeSagana Diop - Dallas
• Chris Duhon - New York
• James Posey - New Orleans
• Beno Udrih - Sacramento

It appears that both Wallace and Davis would have fit into past trends on MLE players; Wallace an aging post presence with a stout defensive base, and Davis an up-and-coming big man with unexplored potential and a solid background. In 2006 – and possibly 2008, either player would have been worth about $6 million per year. In fact, the argument could be made that in a more competitive market, Wallace would have been worth between $8-10 million due to his status in the league – although his talent is clearly on the decline. Would a 32-year-old Rasheed be worth $8m/year for 4 years? In 2006, it would be a feasible argument.

What about Daniels? $2 million per seems awfully low for a player who averaged nearly 14 points per game while filling roles all over the court. Daniels was a key factor in setting up the Pacers’ offense with his slashing drive, and rebounded and defended well in Indiana – could he have gotten more on the market? Let’s look at players who were in similar situations in 2006:

Similar Contracts:

• Melvin Ely ($3.3m) – Bobcats
• Flip Murray ($3.5m over 2 years) – Pistons
• Jackie Butler (7m over 3 years) – Spurs
• Aaron Williams ($3.6m over 2 years) – Clippers
• Shammond Williams ($1.75m) – Lakers

Similar Players:

• Anthony Parker ($12m over 3 years) - Raptors
• Fred Jones ($11m over 3 years) – Raptors

The Jones signing has several parallels to Daniels – a former athletic Pacers guard who looked good in short minutes, has a spotty reputation for shooting the 3, and can play the 1/2/3 positions. Though Daniels put up better numbers in their respective contract years, he’ll be making a little over half what Fred Jones made. Maybe part of that is the premium for playing on a winning team, but it’s still a deep discount to play in Boston.

Bargains were a key to the 2008 championship in Boston as well. Danny Ainge took a huge gamble in banking on a 2nd year player to lead his team from the point guard position. A huge factor in that decision was Rondo's rookie scale contract, which made throwing the young player into the fire a more palatable choice than trading for a higher priced veteran. The risk paid off – the team won a championship and Rondo built on that confidence and appears to only be getting better after a near triple double in last year's playoffs.

But…what if?

Let's say the economy doesn’t tank, and the NBA is still a league reliant on bloated contracts. Players like Zaza Pachulia, Hakim Warrick, Linas Kleiza, and Ramon Sessions, are commanding the full MLE in a weak free agent crop. This inflation is prevalent in most contracts, just like in 2006. What do the Celtics get with their exceptions? Two possible scenarios:

1. Rasheed gets the MLE (leaving money on the table to play in Boston), Davis leaves in free agency to another team willing to offer him the full MLE, and the Biannual exception goes to…Anthony Carter?
2. Davis is locked up for the full MLE, Sheed goes to Cleveland, and the Biannual exception goes to…Jarron Collins?

He could be needlessly fouling people in a whole different uniform!

In both hypotheticals, the outcome is clear – the Celtics end up being a team that only goes seven deep with quality players, instead of nine. Their fourth big is still Brian Scalabrine, and their depth at the 1/2/3 is still questionable, leading to more minutes for Tony Allen and more Celtics fans committing acts of violence from watching him play. The good players that they fail to sign just reinforce their competitors, and the starters have to play more in the regular season because of an inferior bench and leave themselves open to fatigue.

Like 2008, they stand one bad injury away from losing a title shot. However, thanks to the tanking financials of the 2010 NBA season, they’re reloaded with the strongest team (on paper) that they’ve had since the Bird era. So if you’re a Boston fan, the recession isn’t so bad; it’s the rebound you need to keep an eye on.